As we reach the middle of the year, the direction of U.S. immigration policy is becoming increasingly clear. Since the launch of healthcare reform in April, President Obama has explicitly stated that he will focus on immigration and education reform next. There is much speculation from the outside world regarding U.S. immigration trends. Signs indicate that the U.S. attitude toward immigration will become increasingly lenient. For those intending to immigrate to the United States in the coming years, this is nothing short of good news.
Conjecture 1:
U.S. Assets Are Becoming Increasingly Affordable
On the evening of June 19, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement on "further promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate." Building on the 2005 exchange rate reform, it will further advance the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The RMB exchange rate will not undergo a one-time revaluation adjustment; instead, the focus will remain on maintaining a market-based, managed floating exchange rate system based on a basket of currencies. The dynamic management and adjustment of the RMB exchange rate will continue within the announced floating range of the foreign exchange market to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
Although the wording is cautious, this move undoubtedly signifies that the RMB has restarted its journey of floating. So, how will the RMB float against the U.S. dollar? On June 21, the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar remained unchanged at 6.8275 yuan. However, on June 22, the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.7980, a significant increase of 295 basis points from the previous trading day. The reason for the sharp rise in the RMB that day was a surge in demand for the RMB from all parties in the foreign exchange market the previous day. This may be a microcosm of the RMB exchange rate for some time to come.
On the other hand, from the perspective of economic fundamentals, as the economy recovers strongly, the Chinese economy will continue to maintain a high growth rate, and the probability of the RMB deviating from economic fundamentals will be very small. Historical experience also shows that when a country is revitalizing its economy and even rising comprehensively, it is inevitably accompanied by the appreciation and sustained strengthening of its currency. In the long run, the RMB may have embarked on a path of appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
From this point of view, U.S. assets have become relatively depreciated. For those intending to invest and immigrate to the United States, this is certainly good news.
Conjecture 2:
Relaxation of Family Reunification Policy
On May 29, the Democratic leader of the U.S. Senate held a press conference to introduce an outline for an immigration bill, while simultaneously calling on the Republican Party to cooperate on the immigration bill, first by reviewing the outline and engaging in dialogue with the Democrats.
The new proposal contains better news for immigration applicants from countries such as China, India, the Philippines, and Mexico. The new proposal relaxes the national immigration quota cap for family-sponsored immigration, increasing it from the current 7% of the global immigration quota per country to 10%.
Currently, the waiting time for family members to apply for U.S. immigration is relatively long. Those holding U.S. green cards must wait 5 years for their minor children's green card applications to be approved, while in some countries, it takes 20 years after naturalization for immigrants to apply for green cards for their siblings. It is reported that in 1976, the U.S. Congress passed the "National Quotas Act," which extended the waiting time for immigrants from countries like China and India, forcing many families to remain separated for long periods. Therefore, the public outcry for relaxing family reunification continues to rise, and "family reunification," which embodies American values, has become a core topic of immigration reform that is difficult to ignore.
There are signs that the U.S. political sphere is increasingly inclined to change this policy. Since the first half of last year, members of the U.S. Congress have continuously submitted various proposals related to family reunification. Last October, the U.S. Congress passed a bill allowing spouses married to U.S. citizens for less than two years to apply for legal status on their own, which can be considered a small victory for "family reunification immigration."
