At the beginning of 2026, a report from Newsweek sparked widespread discussion within the immigration circle.
American immigration attorneys analyzed that: If the suspension policy for immigration visas from certain countries continues to be enforced, a significant number of family-based green cards may remain unissued this fiscal year, with an estimated 50,000 family-based green cards likely to transfer to the employment-based category in the next fiscal year.
This is based on logical deductions from the quota structure of U.S. immigration law and the “spillover mechanism.”
The Underlying Logic of U.S. Green Card Quota
Every fiscal year (October 1 - September 30 of the following year), the United States establishes statutory immigration quotas.
These are mainly divided into two systems:
• Family-based immigration (FB): The annual statutory quota is approximately 226,000;
• Employment-based immigration (EB): The annual statutory quota is approximately 140,000.
These 140,000 are not fixed. What truly determines fluctuations in employment-based immigration supply is the “spillover rule.”
U.S. immigration law stipulates that if the family-based immigration quota for a given fiscal year is not fully utilized, the remaining quotas will automatically transfer to the employment-based category in the next fiscal year. This is known as the spillover mechanism.
Why Might There Be a “5,000 Quota Spillover”?
This expectation originates from the U.S. government's implementation of the “Ban on 75 Countries.” (For details, please refer to previous reports from WorldWay: The Truth About the U.S. Visa Suspension for 75 Countries) This policy suspended the processing and issuance of immigration visas (i.e., green cards) for citizens from 75 countries. The most affected are family-based immigration visas.
Based on publicly available reports, the logical deductions are:
• In 2024, the countries affected by the ban collectively received approximately 67,000 green cards;
• The ban was implemented in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (from October to December 2025);
• About 17,000 have already been issued;
• Approximately 50,000 may remain unissued;
If the ban continues until the end of the fiscal year, these quotas will automatically enter the total employment-based quota for fiscal year 2027, which is the source of the “potential 50,000 increment in employment-based immigration.”
What Does This Mean for Chinese Applicants?
Based on the quota structure, if about 50,000 new employment-based green cards are added, EB-5 would account for 7.1%, theoretically allowing for over 3,000 green cards to be distributed.
For countries like China with high demand for visas, this means that short-term waiting times may ease.
However, three points must be emphasized: Spillover depends on the duration of the ban, spillover occurs in the “next fiscal year,” and U.S. immigration policy remains uncertain. WorldWay will continue to monitor this situation closely and will share updates promptly.
This is Currently a Window Period for U.S. Immigration Planning
If you are interested in immigrating to the United States, be sure to seize this “window of benefit.” We are currently at a time when policies and quota structures may release favorable conditions, making it a critical moment to plan ahead and secure quotas. The triple advantages of the new EB-5 law:
• Reserved Visa Category: Rural projects enjoy independent quotas, currently “no waiting periods” and have priority approval rights.
• Dual Submission Mechanism: Simultaneously submit I-526E immigration applications and I-485 adjustment of status applications to receive work permits and travel documents early, easing status transition pressures.
• Grandfather Clause Protection: Applications submitted before September 30, 2026, can lock in the current legal framework and avoid risks from future policy changes.
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