Focus on Hong Kong Investment Immigration and Hong Kong Economic Development: The University of Hong Kong released its macroeconomic forecast for the fourth quarter on the 8th. The report anticipates that Hong Kong's real local GDP will rise to 3.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year, with an annual real local GDP growth of 3.4%, primarily driven by local demand, while external demand is weaker than expected.
On the day the report was announced, Professor Wang Yujian from the University of Hong Kong stated that the moderate recovery of the U.S. economy, the low interest rate environment, and the continuous growth of the mainland economy have contributed to Hong Kong's sustained economic growth this year.
However, Wang Yujian noted that this year's real local GDP growth is mainly driven by local demand. Among them, the contribution of local demand growth in Hong Kong is 3.8%, while external demand has dragged down by 0.4%.
Wang Jiafu, a chief lecturer in economics at the University of Hong Kong, analyzed that despite various uncertainties currently, such as the temporary shutdown of the U.S. government, the U.S. economy has shown a moderate recovery in the first three quarters, coupled with the Eurozone emerging from the bottom and the mainland economy continuing to grow at a reasonable pace, it is expected that Hong Kong's economy will still be dominated by improvements in external demand and strong internal demand.
Regarding the development of housing prices in Hong Kong, Wang Jiafu believes that housing prices will stabilize or slightly decline in the future, as the Hong Kong SAR government's increased supply and demand management measures begin to take effect.
The report also predicts that the unemployment rate in Hong Kong will stabilize at 3.3% in the fourth quarter, and with relatively stable food prices and rents, the inflation rate will remain around 4% in the short term, with an expected inflation rate increase of 4.1% in the fourth quarter of this year.