During the 2014 pilot season, the total number of pilot orders signed by the four major US television networks—ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC—was 87, a decrease of approximately 15% compared to the same period last year. Conversely, the number of orders skipping the pilot stage and going straight to full-series production has increased, with over 10 new shows falling into this category.
The traditional "US TV model" involves filming while airing. Networks and production companies first invest in a pilot episode, then decide whether to order the full series based on the pilot's ratings. Ordered shows are broadcast weekly; if ratings are unsatisfactory during the run, the network can make changes or cancel the show at any time. If ratings climb and advertising revenue flows in, the show continues, and after one season concludes, the next season can be ordered in advance. The benefits of this model are: on one hand, it reduces risk and allows for full interaction between the show and the audience; on the other hand, the show is always under intense competitive pressure, with the constant possibility of cancellation if ratings drop. This is a key reason why US TV series maintain high production standards and enjoy a vast global market.
However, this long-standing production model is being shaken. FOX is at the forefront of this new direct-to-series trend. For the 2014-2015 broadcast season, 7 new shows have been confirmed for direct-to-series production, including the highly anticipated new series "Gotham," with 5 other new shows also highly likely to adopt this approach. This January, FOX Entertainment President Kevin Reilly stated that direct-to-series orders shorten decision-making time and facilitate the production of more new shows, noting his intention to "bypass the pilot system, a relic of a bygone era."
The direct-to-series model means networks and production companies do not need to waste money on pilots that are never picked up. For a long time, networks and production companies have been pouring money into the bottomless pit of pilots, with too much capital spent on episodes that never air. Data shows that each of the four major US networks spends between $80 million and $100 million annually on show development, with most comedy pilots costing around $2 million and drama pilots around $5 million. From 2010 to 2011, the number of pilots funded by the four major networks were: NBC 21, ABC 23, CBS 18, and FOX 15, yet only 4 to 5 new shows were ultimately ordered by each network.
Analysts suggest that direct-to-series orders allow networks and production companies to spend more money on shows that will actually be broadcast. Furthermore, creators can devote themselves entirely to the new series without constantly living in fear of cancellation.
On the other hand, innovations led by internet companies have brought huge shocks and opportunities for radical reform to traditional TV production. The production team behind "House of Cards," Netflix, simply skipped the pilot stage, using big data to analyze audience preferences and releasing an entire season at once. This not only won high ratings but also caused executives at traditional networks to reflect. The craze sparked by "House of Cards" had not yet fully subsided when Amazon followed suit by innovating the pilot process. Amazon adopted a brand-new decision-making system—handing the pilot over to the audience. They made pilots available for free viewing on the Amazon Instant Video platform, deciding whether to order the full series based on the number of viewers and their feedback.
Admittedly, direct-to-series production carries certain risks. Last year, NBC promised screenwriter Michael J. Fox a 22-episode order, winning the comedy "The Michael J. Fox Show," which he wrote and starred in. Unexpectedly, the show's ratings steadily declined after it aired. In February of this year, NBC had to cancel the show, ending it after only 15 episodes.
Despite the risks, FOX Chief Operating Officer Joe Earley said: "We are in a state of transition, and with change come growing pains, but we must change."
