The USDA lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production to 88.5 million metric tons this month, 1.5 million metric tons lower than last month's forecast. This is due to temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius for 17 consecutive days in parts of Brazil.
The USDA stated that approximately 40% of Brazil's soybean production has been damaged by extreme hot and dry weather. However, rainfall in mid-February helped alleviate soil moisture deficits.
Although the revised soybean production figure for Brazil remains a record high, it means that Brazil's production will fall below the U.S. output of 89.5 million metric tons.
Nevertheless, Brazil will still retain its position as the world's top soybean exporter, with exports expected to reach 45 million metric tons this year.
The USDA stated that soybean yield potential has been damaged in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais. The region with the most severe production damage is Paraná, Brazil's second-largest soybean producing state; preliminary studies indicate that the state's soybean production may have lost 1 million metric tons due to adverse weather. The USDA pointed out that the hot and dry weather in Paraná occurred during the reproductive stage when soybeans are most vulnerable, leading to a significant reduction in yield potential. In Mato Grosso, the top soybean producing state, heavy rains at the end of February delayed the harvest of longer-cycle soybeans, resulting in quality damage. However, the yields for shorter-cycle soybean crops reached record highs.
