Recently, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services released the data for the H-1B lottery for the fiscal year 2026:
◆ Total registrations: 358,737
◆ Valid registrations: 343,981
◆ Number of selections: 120,141
◆ Overall selection rate: 35%◆
The Truth Behind the Significant Increase in Selection Rate
This time, the selection rate has significantly increased, which appears beneficial on the surface but actually contains dual underlying causes: a deeper analysis reveals that the true reason for the increase in selection rate is not due to more people being selected, but rather a decrease in the number of applicants. Compared to approximately 470,000 valid registrations in the fiscal year 2025, this year saw a reduction of over 100,000 registrations. This also reflects the clear effectiveness of the "one person, one draw" policy implemented by the immigration bureau.
At the same time, this data is also a true reflection of the weakness in the U.S. job market. The core reason for the sharp decline in registrations is the cooling demand for H-1B visas in the U.S. labor market. In recent years, large technology companies have become more conservative, canceling or reducing support for H-1B positions, coupled with frequent layoffs, leading to a significant decrease in employers willing to sponsor visas for foreign employees, resulting in a practical reduction in available H-1B positions. Therefore, although the selection rate has increased, it does not mean that opportunities have increased; rather, the "pool has shrunk."
Concerns for Selected Applicants: H-1B is Not a "Passport to Stay in the U.S."
For Chinese students studying in the U.S., even if selected, the H-1B visa still faces multiple challenges:
◆ Identity risk: If unemployed while holding an H-1B, one must find a new employer to complete the identity transfer within 60 days, or face departure; applicants who were not selected must leave the U.S. within 90 days after their OPT period expires.
◆ Limited career development: Salaries are usually lower than those of local employees, and there is low freedom to change jobs; many employers require employees not to change positions during the validity of the H-1B.
◆ Difficulties in green card conversion: The waiting period for transitioning from H-1B to EB2/EB3 green cards can exceed 14 years, and employer support is continuously declining (for example, Google has suspended applications for PERM for regular programmers).
Long-term Planning Advice: From Passive Lottery to Active Strategy
For those staying in the U.S., it is essential to break free from the mindset of "passively relying on the lottery" and adopt a more proactive identity planning approach to cope with uncertainties, thereby gaining control in a complex immigration environment. The fluctuations in the H-1B selection rate essentially reflect changes in U.S. immigration policy and the labor market. For this reason, an increasing number of investors are turning their attention to EB-5 immigration, viewing it as the preferred option for identity planning in the U.S.
Currently, rural projects in the EB-5 reserved visa channel are among the preferred pathways for quickly obtaining a U.S. green card. EB-5 rural projects combine advantages such as no waiting period, ample quotas, priority approval, and dual submission. Investors can invest $800,000 and simultaneously submit I-526E and I-485 applications, receiving a Combo card in about three months. During the waiting period for the green card, it does not affect entry and exit, allowing for legal residence, study, and work in the U.S. Interested investors should submit their applications as soon as possible to secure their priority date and realize their dream of immigrating to the U.S. at the earliest opportunity.
The two popular EB-5 projects currently on the market—"Florida Lakeside Jewish Community" which has received approvals for I-956F/I-526E/green card three times, and the "Aspen Kodiak Apartments" which has obtained dual approvals for I-956F and I-526E—are high-quality EB-5 rural projects that have undergone rigorous screening and quality control by Worldway Group, opening a fast track for your immigration to the U.S. and helping you seize the opportunity to fulfill your American dream! Project quotas are limited, so act quickly!
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