Recently, according to the statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the annualized quarterly growth rate of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period from April to June was slightly revised up from a previously annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.8% to a growth of 3%. The core engine of the U.S. economic expansion—personal consumer spending—was revised to show a growth of 2.9%, while the previous preliminary estimate was a growth of 2.3%.
The latest unexpectedly revised GDP growth rate, combined with the initial jobless claims in recent weeks that have generally met expectations and shown signs of cooling, as well as the continued expansion of the PMI in the crucial service sector of the U.S. economy, along with the ongoing decline in inflation, perfectly aligns with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a "soft landing" scenario for the U.S. economy.
Another statistic from the government during this period indicates that another major indicator of U.S. economic activity—Gross Domestic Income (GDI)—grew at an annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of 1.3%, matching the growth rate of the first quarter. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total expenditure on goods and services, while GDI measures the income and costs generated from producing these goods and services. The average growth rate of the two indicators is approximately 2.1%.
So far this year, U.S. economic growth has slowed after accelerating in the second half of 2023, but it still aligns with the basic path of a "soft landing." Some forecasters believe that as high borrowing costs continue to permeate the U.S. economy, growth will further slow for the remainder of 2024. Meanwhile, as inflation rates gradually slow down, and the Federal Reserve is likely to begin a rate-cutting cycle next month, this could provide significant relief from demand pressures for industries severely affected by high borrowing costs, such as housing and manufacturing, thereby driving accelerated growth in the U.S. economy.
In the breakdown of U.S. GDP, the vast majority is closely related to consumer spending, with rough estimates indicating that 70%-80% of the components of U.S. GDP are closely tied to consumption. The upward revision of consumer spending reflects that American consumers remain very resilient, showing an increasing trend in their purchasing power for goods and services.
Additionally, according to statistical data, corporate profits also show an optimistic trend. The latest revised data indicates that in the second quarter, adjusted pre-tax profits of U.S. corporations grew by 1.7%. The share of after-tax profits in the total value added of non-financial companies, which measures overall profit margins, slightly increased from 15.2% in the previous quarter to 15.4% in the second quarter, reflecting that corporate profits, which have been under pressure, also exhibit resilience, potentially boosting overall EPS earnings expectations for the S&P 500 index, thereby driving U.S. stocks to new highs.
Overall, the macroeconomic data of the United States still shows a fairly good growth trend. The allocation of dollar assets has always been highly sought after, and investment in U.S. real estate is a popular choice for allocating dollar assets. It can be said that now is a good time to invest in U.S. real estate. The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program is an important avenue for high-net-worth individuals to allocate overseas assets.
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