2017 was arguably the most extraordinary year in the history of immigration, witnessing a series of dramatic events within the industry. How will overseas investment immigration develop in 2018? Recently, Worldway Immigration Group exclusively and authoritatively released the "Five Major Immigration Trends for 2018," which has drawn extensive focus from the industry and numerous domestic media outlets, including ifeng.com, Sina, Caijing, Stockstar, China.org.cn, and Global Times, among others, becoming a significant benchmark for the immigration industry once again.
Based on the development of the immigration industry in 2017 and the trends in global immigration policies, the expert team at Worldway Immigration Group has conducted careful research, analysis, and assessment of policy dynamics worldwide to provide the following forward-looking predictions for the investment immigration industry in 2018:
1. The U.S. launches its largest immigration reform in 30 years; immigration policies will tighten unprecedentedly
Following the U.S. tax reform, the Trump administration will initiate the most significant comprehensive reform of U.S. immigration law in 30 years. On this issue, the Republican and Democratic parties remain divided. Within the scope of executive power and influenced by the "America First" policy, the White House will strictly control L-1 and H-1 visas, rigorously investigate fraudulent activities related to EB-1C and EB-3 visas, and intensify efforts to combat illegal immigration. However, the Republican Party may compromise with the Democrats on the protection of undocumented minors in exchange for support in other areas. Overall, in 2018, as the U.S. launches this major immigration law reform, consensus between the two parties is not guaranteed; under these circumstances, U.S. immigration policies may tighten to an unprecedented degree.
2. The new EB-5 bill will take effect, significantly impacting investment immigration
After ten extensions, the new EB-5 bill is expected to take effect in 2018, having a major impact on investment immigration. Once the new bill is effective, the threshold for EB-5 investment will be significantly raised, creating a "crowding-out effect" that will push a portion of the middle class out of the immigration ranks. On the other hand, due to the implementation of U.S. tax reduction policies, U.S. investment immigration will show a trend toward high-end development. Thirdly, visa backlogs will become more severe in 2018, and the number of applicants will decrease significantly. In this context, projects that can shorten the waiting period will become highly popular in 2018, dominating the development of the Chinese EB-5 market, while projects with severe capital shortages or excessive reliance on EB-5 financing will be prone to failure. Meanwhile, applicants with young children or no accompanying children, who are less affected by the backlog, will be more inclined to choose projects that have already been approved by the USCIS, possess sufficient developer equity, feature simple investment structures, and offer first-priority repayment guarantees for EB-5 funds.
3. The combination of private equity investment and immigration investment becomes a new feature of cross-border asset allocation
Due to severe backlogs and waning enthusiasm for EB-5 investment, U.S. project developers are beginning to seek ways in the Chinese market to compensate for losses caused by insufficient EB-5 financing. At the same time, the trend of global capital returning to the U.S. triggered by tax cuts is accelerating the "dollarization" of global asset allocation, thereby stimulating Chinese investors' enthusiasm for U.S. investment. The "waterfall" distribution method common in the U.S. private equity market will gradually become familiar to Chinese investors, and EB-5 projects that mix private equity with EB-5 financing will become more popular in China. Immigration investment in the U.S. will become more rational; the demand for home purchases by immigration investors will shift more toward residential purposes, and investors will begin to move away from pure real estate speculation toward U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), with open-ended real estate funds that offer higher liquidity becoming particularly popular.
4. The proportion of U.S. investment immigration declines, and the trend toward diversification of immigration investment becomes more apparent
With the decrease in the number of U.S. investment immigration applicants, Canadian investment immigration will become a hot spot for investors. However, due to limited quotas for Canadian investment immigration, its diversion capacity is not strong. In contrast, European investment immigration has no quota restrictions and will attract more investors, making its diversion capacity stronger. In particular, the Greek property purchase immigration program, with its high cost-effectiveness and low investment threshold, will be a new hot spot for European investment immigration in 2018. Meanwhile, as the EU refugee crisis eases and the economy recovers, the value of EU passports is being rediscovered, and the Cyprus property purchase immigration program, which grants EU citizenship, will continue to be popular.
5. In 2018, China will implement the CRS financial account tax information exchange for the first time; low-tax immigration programs will be highly sought after
In 2018, China will implement the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) for the exchange of financial account tax information for the first time, and global tax transparency will reach an unprecedented level. Under these circumstances, low-tax immigration programs will be highly sought after. Consideration of tax systems will become an important factor influencing trends in immigration investment. Taxation and business operations will become another driver for immigration, second only to children's education. Commonwealth countries in the Caribbean and the South Pacific share common characteristics such as simple tax systems, no tax on overseas income, and no inheritance or value-added taxes, which will attract more investment immigrants to make choices from a business and tax perspective. In particular, investment citizenship programs in countries like Saint Lucia and Dominica, which have lower investment costs and higher cost-effectiveness, will be more popular. Due to Saint Lucia's unique national conditions, it will become the Commonwealth country with the fastest growth in the number of applicants in 2018.
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