Over the past few months, Europe has been plunged into a dark vortex of immigration issues. Italy has experienced its largest racial riots since World War II, with the government deploying armed forces to clear out settlements of illegal African immigrants in the south. British Conservative leader David Cameron has stated that if the Conservative Party wins, it will cut immigration by 25%. French President Nicolas Sarkozy plans to ban the traditional Muslim garment, the "burqa," as well as other minority customs. Even Sweden, the most immigrant-friendly country, has amended its constitution via referendum to ban the construction of minarets. Foreign immigration seems to have become a major headache for Europe. With the rise of xenophobia, Europe must make a choice: follow the American model of opening doors to immigrants to promote prosperity, or follow the Japanese model of closing borders to immigrants and continuing its decline.
European Immigration Policy Faces a New Choice
In recent years, immigration to Europe has surged, showing a trend of surpassing the United States, the world's primary immigration destination. Since 1990, 26 million immigrants have arrived in Europe, compared to only 20 million in the United States. The European Commission estimates that since 2004, Eastern European immigrants alone have generated $50 billion in net income for Western Europe. These immigrants have helped accelerate Europe's economic prosperity and restore the continent's declining birth rate. However, French commentator Dominique Moïsi warns that fear and hostility toward foreign immigrants are becoming a dominant force in European politics. The direct cause of this fear stems from the economic crisis, with many worrying that these foreign immigrants are "stealing" jobs from Europeans and burdening the national welfare system.
Furthermore, the increase in immigration has also sparked racial and religious fears among Europeans. Driven by this fear, governments have begun to turn against outsiders. European countries, including the UK and Italy, have introduced many measures to restrict immigration, while countries like Spain and the Czech Republic have even proposed paying for the repatriation of immigrants. Under the influence of these measures and the economic downturn, European immigration has declined sharply since 2009. As this trend becomes increasingly apparent, Europe faces a new and severe dilemma: should it appease the anger of the majority of Europeans and close its doors, or should it challenge public opinion and open its borders to more skilled immigrants?
Politically, keeping borders open to immigrants is difficult, but it is essential for restoring the European economy and ensuring its long-term vitality. This would encourage Europe to become a more open and prosperous society, as seen in traditional immigration powerhouses like Canada, Australia, and the United States. Once Europe closes its doors to immigration, it may end up like Japan—first withering and becoming xenophobic, and ultimately declining.
Reducing Immigration Will Make Europe Smaller and Poorer
Europe needs immigration to change its irrational demographic structure. The European population is aging rapidly, and it needs young immigrants to fill the gap. Among the 27 EU member states, 10 countries have death rates that exceed birth rates, including Germany and Italy. By 2015, this phenomenon will spread across all of Europe; by 2035, the number of deaths in Europe will exceed the number of births by 1 million annually; and by 2050, the EU's working-age population deficit will reach 52 million. Compared to the younger and more dynamic China and the United States, the EU's competitiveness will further decline.
Even now, industries across the continent are facing a shortage of skilled workers. Despite the economic downturn, Europe still has a 4 million job vacancy gap. As time passes, these problems will become increasingly prominent. Economists predict that global GDP will double over the next 20 years, creating 1 billion new jobs. However, due to the more severe aging problem in Europe, its market share may decrease. The European Commission estimates that Europe will need 20 million skilled immigrants over the next 20 years to maintain its current global status. If this demand cannot be met, Europe will become smaller and poorer, falling further behind the rising powers of China, India, and Brazil.
Of course, immigration also brings many problems to European countries, such as increased crime rates. But even building walls against immigration may not be effective; it will only lead more immigrants to enter Europe illegally through uncontrolled channels. Unlike Japan, Europe is not a purely isolated island nation; it is surrounded by populous African and Middle Eastern countries, and a large number of immigrants are constantly seeking ways to enter Europe. Therefore, European leaders should adopt policies of continued immigration and better integration. Immigrants are crucial to the development of European countries and the continent as a whole. Skilled workers are the key to keeping European businesses and public services running. Immigration does not increase the risk of unemployment for Europeans; during economic crises, immigrants are usually the first victims of unemployment, providing a buffer for the local population.
As the economic crisis ends, Europe faces a painful decision. Even a good immigration policy is not a magic bullet and cannot solve all economic and demographic crises. But without immigration, Europe's boasted prosperity and social model will collapse rapidly.
