Do Americans really change jobs as frequently as they change cars and refrigerators?
The latest monthly U.S. employment report was released on the eve of Labor Day, giving office workers the chance to pore over the unemployment data during the long holiday weekend, as the unpredictability of the workplace has captured their attention. Today, many Americans hear that the workplace is becoming increasingly volatile and that employees have greater autonomy in choosing their careers. One of the most frequently cited claims is that Americans will hold several jobs in their lifetime—with seven being the most commonly cited figure.
Employment market researchers say it is unclear where this number comes from. Ann Stevens, a professor and chair of the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis, says, "The idea that a person holds seven jobs in a lifetime, I find that hard to believe."
However, this assertion has extraordinary staying power. One reason is that no one knows the exact average. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) states that what researchers currently know is that those just entering the workforce change jobs frequently: three-quarters of workers aged 16 to 19 and half of workers aged 20 to 24 changed jobs within a year.
However, the frequent job-hopping of young people (which may also include students changing summer jobs) is not the kind of job transition many people refer to, which they define as changing jobs in middle age after ten or twenty years in the same position. Such job transitions may require high retraining costs and the risk of a pay cut—and, in the current employment climate, the risk of unemployment. Researchers say it is hard to imagine an average person making seven such major moves in their career.
Surveys on this data are easily skewed by a small group of people who are enthusiastic about job-hopping. Economists say that, furthermore, employees sometimes have to take on entirely new responsibilities even without leaving their original employer, which technically fits the definition of a job change, further complicating the issue.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics cites an example on its website: an economist is promoted to a management position; although her title is still economist, her job responsibilities have changed. Solomon Polachek, a professor of economics and political science at Binghamton University in New York, says the problem is that it is difficult to define what constitutes a job change. However, he still believes the number seven is an exaggeration.
Because there is no hard data on this, rumors that the mentality of frequently changing jobs is becoming increasingly common in the U.S. have been allowed to flourish. Career management experts frequently state that people are changing jobs often, as these experts spend a lot of time dealing with people who are changing jobs. New York career consultant Jeff Neil stated in an email, "In my experience, I think the average person will hold six to seven jobs in their lifetime, and this number is continuing to grow."
He mentioned a 30-year-old client currently seeking a new career path who is now a doctor's office manager, having previously worked at a real estate sales firm, a talent agency, a sports car dealership, and as a sales representative at a top fitness club. Neil added that frequent job changes have become the norm, and without a formal survey, he cannot provide an exact number.
While data on the number of job changes is scarce, economists and statisticians have tracked how often Americans change jobs. In this census, the U.S. Census Bureau asked some respondents how long they had been working at their current company.
Researchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other institutions have used these surveys to calculate the total number of jobs Americans hold over their careers. Their results show that the number of years Americans have spent at their current company has not changed significantly since the late 1990s. For example, the median tenure of an American worker with their current employer was 3.8 years in 1996, 3.5 years in 2000, and 4.1 years in 2008. The 2008 figure is the latest data currently available for reference.
Chuck Pierret, an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has long been conducting a study to more accurately track the long-term stability of American jobs. The study began in 1979 with 10,000 Americans aged 14 to 22. The most recent data shows that this group of respondents held an average of 10.8 jobs each between the ages of 18 and 42.
Pierret points out that the experiences of this group may not apply to today's new entrants to the workforce. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is beginning to study job transitions for those born between 1980 and 1984. However, the recent economic crisis may have a significant impact on the results, and long-term trends will be difficult to judge, which is another factor that makes job stability difficult to measure.
Speaking of these respondents in their twenties, Pierret said their careers have been heavily impacted by the economic crisis, so they may not be very representative.
