Recently, the U.S. Department of State's Visa Office released the visa bulletin for June 2015, in which the cutoff date for the EB-5 U.S. investment immigration visa remains at "May 1, 2013." The calendar has moved forward by one month, but the cutoff date remains unchanged, effectively extending the wait time from 2 years to 2 years and 1 month. This is considered good news as the industry expects the EB-5 backlog to stabilize.
![[In-Depth Analysis] The EB-5 Visa Backlog is Just a Paper Tiger](http://www.worldwayhk.com/file/upload/201505/14/15-01-20-13-41.jpg)
The EB-5 Backlog has Stabilized
Currently, the backlog for the year 2015 does not seem as dire as expected. Starting in 2016, the wait time may be 2 years, but by the end of the 2016 fiscal year, on September 30, 2016, it may only increase to 2 and a half years, rather than the previously anticipated 3 years.
Two Sets of Data Explain the Reasons
Overall, the backlog is merely a paper tiger for one primary reason: the backlog itself. There are two sets of numbers that should explain this reason:
1. Based on past statistics, an average family of three, meaning one approved I-526 application corresponds to three visas. In proportional terms, this means that the applicant (investor) occupies about 33% of the visa quota, while their family members (spouse and children) occupy about 66% of the visa quota.
2. Recently, this number has changed. At the IIUSA Washington Conference on April 13, the latest figures provided by the Visa Office indicate that the principal applicant (investor) occupies about 45% of the visa quota, while their family members (spouse and children) occupy about 55% of the visa quota.
Industry colleagues should have noticed this trend; previously, the vast majority of EB-5 applications were made by parents as principal applicants. Now, if the child is over 18-19 years old, they generally choose to be the principal applicant. Once the child becomes the principal applicant, one I-526 application will correspond to only one visa.
[Summary] A Dialectical View on Overaged Children
Now that the backlog has been established, it is believed that more parents will not choose to take risks but will cautiously allow their children to be the principal applicants. Therefore, we have reason to believe that in the EB-5 applications from mainland China, the proportion of principal applicants (investors) occupying the visa quota will continue to increase, while the proportion occupied by family members (spouse and children) will continue to decrease. Consequently, the number of EB-5 visas corresponding to I-526 applications will also decrease.
Thus, the issue of overaged children caused by the backlog has become the most effective mechanism to prevent the backlog from extending indefinitely. It is precisely because of this mechanism that the length of time for the EB-5 backlog to recede will reach a dynamic balance. Assuming all conditions remain unchanged, such as the EB-5 investment price, the demand for immigration from mainland China, and the annual EB-5 visa quota, once the backlog extends, it will force more families to choose their children as principal applicants, which will lead to fewer visas being occupied, thereby shortening the backlog time.
Worldway will continue to work with GT Law Firm to provide you with the latest information on U.S. investment immigration from the U.S. Department of State and the Immigration Bureau. Regarding the backlog issue, Worldway will continuously monitor and provide professional answers through the company’s official website and various official channels such as WeChat. Applicants or investors with any questions or concerns regarding the EB-5 backlog can follow Worldway's official channels or contact Worldway consultants and customer service. Worldway will provide you with the most authoritative, detailed, professional, and satisfactory answers and services. Consultation hotline: 400-138-2929
