Recently, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) released the latest data for I-526 and I-829 for the first quarter of the 2015 fiscal year. By delving into the EB-5 related data from the 2008 fiscal year to the first quarter of the 2015 fiscal year, what patterns can be discovered? By analyzing this data from the past 7 years, what trends and changes can we anticipate for U.S. EB-5 investment immigration in 2015 and beyond? Worldway's U.S. immigration experts provide a detailed analysis below.
Figure 1: I-526 Receipts from FY 2008 to Q1 FY 2015
Figure 2: Analysis of I-526 Processing Status from FY 2008 to Q1 FY 2015
By analyzing Figure 1, we can draw the following conclusions and predictions:
1) The number of receipts in the first quarter of FY 2015 was approximately 3,000, with a rough annual estimate of 12,000, which is expected to hit a new record high;
2) The number of receipts in 2013 and 2012 was roughly equivalent, but by 2014, the market heated up rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of over 70%.
By analyzing Figure 2, we can draw the following conclusions and predictions:
1) In 2014, 4,925 cases were approved, accounting for about 27% of the total cases processed that year;
2) In 2014, 1,169 cases were denied, accounting for about 6% of the total receipts that year;
3) Most frustratingly, the remaining unprocessed cases, combined with the backlog from previous years, caused the number of pending cases in 2014 to overflow, reaching 12,453, which is more than the total number of receipts for that year (10,923).
By comprehensively analyzing Figure 1 and Figure 2, we can draw the following conclusions and predictions:
1) The number of EB-5 applications has surged, but USCIS staffing has not increased sufficiently;
2) Some projects may have spent a long time responding to RFE and NOID due to project-side reasons or incomplete investor materials;
3) It is also possible that the case submission time was close to the end of the fiscal year, leaving insufficient time for processing that year.
4) The number of denied cases in the first quarter of FY 2015 was only 133, accounting for 1% of the total cases processed in the same period. Compared to the 6%-10% ratio of the previous three years, this ratio is relatively low. However, as the next three quarters arrive, this ratio may increase, meaning that by the end of the 2015 fiscal year, the proportion of denied cases will rise.
Figure 3: I-829 Receipts from FY 2008 to Q1 FY 2015
Figure 4: Analysis of I-829 Processing Status from FY 2008 to Q1 FY 2015
By analyzing Figure 3 and Figure 4, we can draw the following conclusions and predictions:
1) During the three years from FY 2012 to FY 2014, the approval rate of I-829 accounted for about 60-70% of the total cases processed annually, which is relatively stable;
2) During the three years from FY 2012 to FY 2014, the number of denied I-829 cases was 8%, 5%, and 11% of the approved cases, respectively. It can be assumed that for every 10-17 I-829 cases approved, one case will be denied;
3) The pass rate in the first quarter of FY 2015 was less than 10%, which is normal because this fiscal year has only just begun. As the year's work unfolds, we believe more I-829 cases will be approved by the end of this fiscal year.
Figure 5: I-526 Statistics from FY 2008 to Q1 FY 2015
Figure 6: I-829 Statistics from FY 2008 to Q1 FY 2015
Figure 7: Latest EB-5 Approval Times Announced by USCIS in 2015
According to the latest official data from USCIS, as of now, there are approximately 12,500 cases in the backlog, and the processing times for both I-526 and I-829 have been extended. Authoritative industry experts predict that EB-5 scheduling and price increases are likely to occur in 2015, and the scheduling will become increasingly longer. In the urgent situation where the scheduling alarm is approaching, it is recommended that investors plan their immigration as early as possible. Especially since projects already approved by USCIS are rare in the current EB-5 market.
As a leading brand in U.S. investment immigration, Worldway has launched projects already approved by USCIS with I-924: the New York Liberty Garden Luxury Apartment Project and the Pennsylvania Highway Project.
The New York Liberty Garden Luxury Apartment Project, by virtue of its pre-approval by USCIS with I-924, stands out among numerous real estate EB-5 projects and has become an unmissable choice for dealing with the 2015 U.S. investment immigration schedule. Furthermore, the New York Liberty Garden Luxury Apartment Project also has a high net asset guarantee of 14.5 times. The developer, Lightstone Group, is one of the largest and most successful unlisted comprehensive real estate developers in the United States, and the developer's founder provides a personal asset guarantee of 11.7 times.
The Pennsylvania Highway Project has already received USCIS I-924 approval, and the project is funded by a state government loan with a state government repayment commitment, making it a 100% U.S. government EB-5...
