On April 28, local time in the U.S., AILA (American Immigration Lawyers Association) issued a warning regarding EB-5 visa retrogression. In its announcement titled “Visa Office update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 4/28/14)”, AILA, based on information from officials at the National Visa Center, issued a warning of visa retrogression for Chinese EB-5 investors that will occur this summer.
Experts point out that there are currently over 7,000 I-526 applications awaiting approval, with 80% coming from mainland China. According to statistics, the average number of visas issued per I-526 applicant family is 3. This means that once the current backlog of over 7,000 I-526 applications is approved, based on the current 80% I-526 approval rate, it will require the issuance of 7,000 * 80% * 3, or 16,800 visas; as USCIS accelerates the processing speed of I-526, it will also accelerate the reaching of the annual 10,000 EB-5 visa cap.
Based on the current situation, it is possible that the 10,000 visa quota will be exhausted in June or July of this year. The remaining I-526 applications, once approved, will enter the Guangzhou Consulate queue for interviews until the new fiscal year begins on October 1, when the new 10,000 visa quota will be calculated. In the next fiscal year (FY 2015, i.e., from October 1, 2014, to September 30, 2015), visa retrogression for Chinese investors will be inevitable.
The issue of retrogression may become clearer in the coming weeks and will also be shared at the AILA expert panel meeting in May. It should be noted that all projections, including notes in the Visa Bulletin, are subject to change based on actual demand. USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) and DOS (Department of State) will aggregate “real-time” demand.
Experts analyze that the retrogression issue for Chinese investors will occur in the 2014 fiscal year and will become increasingly severe in the first half of the 2015 calendar year; once retrogression occurs, it means that Chinese EB-5 investors will have to wait an additional 2-3 years after their I-526 application is approved to queue for an interview at the Guangzhou Consulate. While for most Chinese investors the impact may only be a matter of waiting time, it will be very disadvantageous for families with children nearing the age-out limit or those with plans to study in the U.S.
In light of the explosive growth in the number of applicants and the increasingly clear issue of visa retrogression, Worldway immigration experts advise investors to prepare early for the upcoming visa retrogression. Families with children nearing the age-out limit (approaching 19 years old) or those planning to study in the U.S. must make their EB-5 investments as soon as possible. Submitting an application one day earlier may save the family a significant amount of time and avoid unnecessary trouble!
Currently, the number of U.S. investment regional centers has increased to over 400, and there are countless investment projects every year, which are a mix of good and bad, increasing the difficulty for investors to screen high-quality projects. Worldway immigration experts state that carefully selecting U.S. immigration projects can further reduce investment risks. The New York municipal infrastructure project and the Cleveland government bond project currently being promoted by Worldway are both strongly supported by the Port Authority (the largest inter-state government agency in the U.S.), have outstanding advantages, and are rare, stable projects in the U.S. immigration market. However, due to the excessive number of applicants, truly good projects are in short supply. There are not many spots left for these two projects, so investors interested in immigrating to the U.S. are advised to consult as soon as possible to seize the opportunity.
