According to a report by the U.S. World Journal, is there any hope for the U.S. immigration bill to pass this year? The greatest hope may have to wait until after the midterm elections in November. Robert Menendez, the only Hispanic U.S. Senator, Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and Senator from New Jersey, stated that there is a greater chance of the bill passing during the congressional session after the November elections.
Why wait until November? Menendez emphasized that the immigration bill requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass, and he does not want the bill to fail. He noted that once the immigration bill is voted down, it will be even harder to pass in the future.
Currently, immigration and Hispanic groups have been pushing for the immigration bill, demanding that the Senate introduce it before the end of this month.
In fact, everyone knows that the immigration bill cannot pass right now. Forcing it through would likely only alienate allies and embolden enemies. Republican senators view the deliberation of the immigration bill as another opportunity similar to the healthcare bill, which the Republican Party and the Tea Party could exploit. Meanwhile, conservative Democratic senators running for re-election this year do not want Congress to deliberate on the immigration bill before the election, as doing so would be detrimental to the Democratic Party's electoral prospects.
However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who is facing a tough re-election campaign this year, is pinning his hopes on Hispanic votes in Nevada to help him overcome his difficulties. At an immigration rally in Las Vegas over the weekend, Reid pointed out that the immigration bill should be passed now.
Hispanics account for 13% of Nevada's population, and Hispanic voters made up 15% of the state's total votes in last year's election. Many of these Hispanic voters went to the polls specifically based on their hopes for the immigration bill. Last year, 67% of Hispanic voters in the state voted for the Democratic Party. If Nevada's Hispanic voters turn out to vote again this year, Reid still has a chance at re-election.
California Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, who is running for re-election this year, faces a similar situation. Hispanic voters in California accounted for 18% of the votes in last year's general election, and 74% of California's Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Obama.
Therefore, for Reid and Boxer, deliberating on the immigration bill before this year's election is more favorable to them. Even if the bill does not pass, it at least demonstrates that the Democratic Party has made an effort and has provided an account to Hispanic voters, who could become the key votes for their re-election. However, conservative Democratic senators oppose deliberating on the immigration bill before the election. They do not need to court the Hispanic vote.
What Menendez is concerned about is that the immigration bill must succeed; it should not be a matter of voting just for the sake of voting. He pointed out that the Senate needs 60 votes to pass the immigration bill. Strategically speaking, the period after the November elections is likely a better time.
The Democratic Party will suffer losses after the election, and Reid may very well bid farewell to Congress. Democratic lawmakers may use the last two months of this congressional session to pass key Democratic legislation in one go. Menendez said that by then, lawmakers who are leaving Congress will have no further concerns and can vote according to their conscience.
Chuck Schumer, Chairman of the Immigration Subcommittee of the Senate Judiciary Committee and the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate, has so far been unwilling to answer whether he can introduce the immigration bill this month.
